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How to beat the bookies with accumulator bets Speaking of probability, there are two basic methods that can be used to work out the probability of each event. These include: using the sports bookies odds to suggest what you perceive as the probability of the event, and using the match profile within your favorite or preferred soccer tipster to. The best way to beat the bookies is to exploit value from all their promotions which give you the edge. To lure customers in, bookmakers offer free bet sign up offers. Typically Matched betting involves using a betting exchange to offset what is referred to as qualifying bets at the bookie for minimal cost.
You don’t have to be an expert gambler to make a profit with an online betting site gamble.
Online betting is big business these days. You can access a bookmaker website through PC, laptop, tablet or Smartphone. There’s also the chance to download the app for ease of use on the move, with most new bookies now offering In-Play betting and the chance to Cash Out for a profit.
Naturally, the house often wins, especially when it comes to In-Play betting where the margins aren’t as tight and that means that punters face an uphill struggle to beat a trader with several algorithms at his hands.
However, it’s important to note that pre-match betting on football matches can yield a profit and you don’t always need to know a great deal about the teams concerned.
While plenty of betting customers have different ways of reading the form and pay special attention to injury information before striking a wager, there are others who simply follow a simple mathematics program.
This can be achieved in a number of ways. You get the bonus “abusers” who will use maths when they receive a free bet to ensure that they bank a profit whatever happens in a football match.
The emergence of betting exchanges means that trading out a free bet for a modest profit is achievable even if the process is slightly complicated with regard to how you do this.
Then something has come along called “Soccermatics”, a concept that has been introduced by a mathematician called David Sumpter who had previously rarely gambled on a sporting event but recently turned his attention towards online betting.soccermatics
In a recent article featuring in “The Economist”, Sumpter has explained the secrets behind his methods, pointing out how the bookmakers price up football matches and suggests different ways that customers with little betting knowledge can emerge with a tidy profit over a long-term basis.
Indeed, a lot of customer losses come from short-termism where a certain method is employed for a short spell only for the person to realise only a small gain or even an initial loss.
However, the methods described by Sumpter should theoretically result in small gains over a long-term basis. Naturally, as confidence (and hopefully profit) grows using a certain methodology, then a larger staking plan can be executed to good effect.
Until autumn 2015, Sumpter “had never got over the entry barrier posed by opening up an account and feeding in my credit card details”.
However, in the previous months, he had developed a maths technique to beat the bookies and wanted to deploy one final experiment before sending off his book draft to the publishers. This experiment would hopefully bear fruit and strengthen “Soccermatics” and what it can bring to the greater world of punters.
During the first half of the 2015-16 Premier League season, Sumpter developed a mathematics model and he told The Economist that the model would attempt to predict the outcome of football matches in a more accurate fashion than a bookmaker such as bet365, Ladbrokes or Paddy Power.bet365
STEPS TO FOLLOW
One of the first things recommended by Sumpter (and this very site) is to ensure you have betting accounts with several operators. It simply doesn’t pay (literally) to have one or two bookmaker accounts if you’re serious about making a profit margin over a long-term basis.
The odds differ across the board every time a football match is played. Some bookmakers are prepared to take a position against a certain side, whether it’s just a hunch or based on some statistical model that is being employed within that particular trading room.
It should also be noted that a lot of the time, the prices are dictated by the amount of money going on each team. For example, Arsenal open their 2016/17 campaign against Liverpool and might be chalked up at even money to win.
However, should a bookmaker get a deluge of bets on the Gunners to win the match, they might trim Arsenal to 10/11 or even 4/5, thus reducing the payout every time someone backs the London club.
Now, this deluge of bets might have a story behind it, eg a new Arsenal signing or Liverpool losing one of their best players. Or it might just be that a customer wants to back a favoured team at home and let’s face it, a lot of people like backing the favourites.
Sumpter is keen for everyone to understand the difference between odds and probabilities. So for example, if Arsenal were even money, then that suggests that the Gunners have a 50% chance of winning a football match. If they were 2/1, then they have a 33% chance of winning in the eyes of the bookmaker.
According to the mathematician, “you need to do the odds-to-probability calculation every single time you place a bet. Before you part with your money, assign probabilities to each potential outcome and compare these with the odds”.
So effectively, you are creating your own “tissue” where you assign the odds for each game before comparing and contrasting with the bookies. He then suggests (naturally) that you should only bet where your implied probability is higher than the bookmaker odds.
There are several models which Sumpter has rejected along the way, with celebrities often making fun predictions which wouldn’t win money over time. The Euro Club index and “expected goals” were also dismissed after being tested out after flimsy results accordingly.
However, the “odds bias model” was unearthed to be the most reliable of all. This was especially the case when it came to backing the draw in big matches where it appears that punters aren’t fond of sitting on the fence.
Indeed, the hype surrounding these matches and the tribalism of Arsenal meeting Chelsea or Manchester United facing Manchester United means that bookmakers take a huge number of bets on one team or another, leaving the draw price to drift and shrewd punters to get on board.
The professor is at pains to point out that modelling systems on football betting need to evolve and be freshly-devised over time. You can’t simply stick to the ethos of “betting on the draw in big matches” as bookmakers will reduce the odds accordingly if enough people start doing this.
There’s also the unpredictability of football matches, with Sumpter pointing out that the 2014/15 season saw punters able to make plenty of cash by backing Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City over time. However, Chelsea then defended their title badly and it would have paid to oppose them on a regular basis during the first half of the season.
The one tip that Sumpter produces for The Economist is the 5/2 about Wales beating Russia during the group stage and he recommends placing bets at these odds on a regular basis.
Backing teams to win at 5/2 or 2/1 naturally requires an element of bravery although it doesn’t actually require you to be right all the time. If you get one selection out of three right by betting at minimum odds of 2/1, then you will guarantee to break even at the very least and make a handsome profit.
We should also resist the temptation to Cash Out even when the offer is tasty, with the bookmaker always offering a cheaper option which doesn’t accurately reflect the odds of you winning on a bet.
10/01/2021 01:21In online sports betting, all you need is to have an account on a site or app, and you are good to go. These services facilitate your bets and pay you out whenever you win. Although the online betting industry eliminated the human element in sports betting, it is still the sportsbooks–or simply called the bookies–that run every bet placed. The bookies have been surrounded by numerous myths and misconceptions but as a bettor, you would naturally only want one thing–to “beat” them and make the most profit out of your wagers as possible.
So how do you go about that? You can start by reading on the top tips and inputs provided on sites like Lines.com, for one. Apart from that, here are some of the top secrets that you should know if you wish to “beat” the bookies whenever you bet on sports.
Know your sport inside out
It pays a lot in the long run if you know your sports inside out, and if you focus on betting on it. Sure, you can always wager on multiple sports–and that is, in fact, one of the things that makes online sports betting a great technological innovation–but focusing on perfecting your knowledge about one specific sport would make you a better and more efficient bettor for the long term.
Knowing your sport is not only about knowing the rules and mechanics of how it is played–other important things you should be well-versed at are the league history, the players, the teams, the history of each team, and each player as an individual, and many more. If you are knowledgeable at these things, the chances of you getting swayed by the odds and line as the bookies want you to believe will be significantly lower.
You can only go as far as your bankroll
Don’t let bookies tempt you into making a bet with the promise of the chance to win loads of money. Most of the time, these sponsored or advertised bets are bad bets and are hyped up to increase the profits of the sportsbooks.
You can only win as much as your bankroll can last. So, if you want to make it big and be among the high rollers in sports betting, you might want to consider working on your bankroll first.
You really can’t win it all…and it doesn’t matter
A lot of newbie bettors make this mistake when it comes to tracking their progress. They count which bets they won and the more bets they win, the more they believe they are winning overall. The truth is that you would lose most of your bets. However, that is not necessarily a bad thing.
Rather than measuring your progress through how many times you’ve won, it would be a better idea to measure your progress by how much profit you have made-0-regardless of how many bets you’ve won so far.
Don’t be emotional
Bookies tend to hype up a side of the game if they see that they are the people’s favorite. Sometimes, they would use this to tug on people to bet on the underdog, and sometimes, they use this to call in more bets to the favorites. This would all depend on the current balance of the bets–what the bookies need is to make sure that it is balanced in a way that would give them the most profit possible.
So, if you get a “tip” to bet on your personal favorite, don’t get carried away. After all, being carried by your emotions is what works best for bookies, since this is when you are to make the most unstrategic bets you would make.